We call the result global warming, but it is causing a set of changes to the
Earth's climate, or long-term weather patterns, that varies from place to place.
As the Earth spins each day, the new heat swirls with it, picking up moisture
over the oceans, rising here, settling there. It's changing the rhythms of
climate that all living things have come to rely upon.
What will we do to slow this warming? How will we cope with the changes we've
already set into motion? While we struggle to figure it all out, the face of the
Earth as we know it—coasts, forests, farms and snow-capped mountains—hangs in
the balance.
The "greenhouse effect" is the warming that happens when certain gases in
Earth's atmosphere trap heat. These gases let in light but keep heat from
escaping, like the glass walls of a greenhouse.
First, sunlight shines onto
the Earth's surface, where it is absorbed and then radiates back into the
atmosphere as heat. In the atmosphere, “greenhouse” gases trap some of this
heat, and the rest escapes into space. The more greenhouse gases are in the
atmosphere, the more heat gets trapped.
Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824, when Joseph
Fourier calculated that the Earth would be much colder if it had no
atmosphere. This greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth's climate livable.
Without it, the Earth's surface would be an average of about 60 degrees
Fahrenheit cooler. In 1895, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered
that humans could enhance the greenhouse effect by making carbon dioxide, a
greenhouse gas. He kicked off 100 years of climate research that has given us
a sophisticated understanding of global warming.
Levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have gone up and down over the Earth's
history, but they have been fairly constant for the past few thousand years.
Global average temperatures have stayed fairly constant over that time as
well, until recently. Through the burning of fossil fuels and other GHG
emissions, humans are enhancing the greenhouse effect and warming Earth.
Scientists often use the term "climate change" instead of global warming.
This is because as the Earth's average temperature climbs, winds and ocean
currents move heat around the globe in ways that can cool some areas, warm
others, and change the amount of rain and snow falling. As a result, the
climate changes differently in different areas.
Aren't temperature changes natural?
The average global temperature and concentrations of carbon dioxide (one of
the major greenhouse gases) have fluctuated on a cycle of hundreds of
thousands of years as the Earth's position relative to the sun has varied. As
a result, ice ages have come and gone.
However, for thousands of years now, emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere
have been balanced out by GHGs that are naturally absorbed. As a result, GHG
concentrations and temperature have been fairly stable. This stability has
allowed human civilization to develop within a consistent climate.
Occasionally, other factors briefly influence global temperatures.
Volcanic eruptions, for example, emit particles that temporarily cool the
Earth's surface. But these have no lasting effect beyond a few years. Other
cycles, such as El Niño, also work on fairly short and predictable cycles.
Now, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
by more than a third since the industrial revolution. Changes this large have
historically taken thousands of years, but are now happening over the course
of decades.
Why is this a concern?
The rapid rise in greenhouse gases is a problem because it is changing the
climate faster than some living things may be able to adapt. Also, a new and
more unpredictable climate poses unique challenges to all life.
Historically, Earth's climate has regularly shifted back and forth between
temperatures like those we see today and temperatures cold enough that large
sheets of ice covered much of North America and Europe. The difference between
average global temperatures today and during those ice ages is only about 5
degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit), and these swings happen slowly, over
hundreds of thousands of years.
Now, with concentrations of greenhouse gases rising, Earth's remaining ice
sheets (such as Greenland and Antarctica) are starting to melt too. The extra
water could potentially raise sea levels significantly.
As the mercury rises, the climate can change in unexpected ways. In
addition to sea levels rising, weather can become more extreme. This means
more intense major storms, more rain followed by longer and drier droughts (a
challenge for growing crops), changes in the ranges in which plants and
animals can live, and loss of water supplies that have historically come from
glaciers.
Scientists are already seeing some of these changes occurring more quickly
than they had expected. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, eleven of the twelve hottest years since thermometer readings became
available occurred between 1995 and 2006.